Archive for October, 2012

Part II – Rigged Elections for Romney?

Michael Collins

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Part I of this series suggested that there may well have been massive vote flipping for candidate Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries (Rigged Elections for Romney (10/22/12)  The article and the initial research analysis were received broadly.  In addition, highly motivated citizens across the country and a team of high school students contacted the authors for help replicating the research in their states.  The researchers, Francois et al., point out that this can be done with their open source techniques.

The basic argument is straightforward.  If you look at precinct level voting data arranged from the smallest to the largest precincts, you will see Romney’s gains increasing substantially as the cumulative vote increases.  For example, Ohio and Wisconsin show this clearly as do eleven other states presented here.  This extraordinary vote gain from smallest to largest precincts is so out of line, that the probability that this would happen by chance alone is often less than 1 out of a number represented by 1 preceded by 100 zeros and a decimal point, a value beneath the statistical package’s lower limits.  As a result, the researchers termed the suspected vote flipping for Romney the “amazing anomaly.” (The Amazing Statistical Anomaly) Read the rest of this entry »

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Rigged Elections for Romney?

By Michael Collins

A group of independent researchers caught a pattern of apparent vote flipping during the 2012 Republican primaries that consistently favored Mitt Romney. A form of election fraud, vote flipping occurs when votes are changed from one candidate to another or several others during electronic voting and vote tabulation.  (Image:  Dean  Terry)

Vote flipping is difficult to detect because the vote totals remain the same for each precinct. In one of several possible scenarios, an instruction is given to a precinct level voting machine or to a county-level central tabulator. The corrupted totals from precincts are sent from county election officials to state elections board and published as final results. (Primary documents for this article: Republican Primary Election 2012 Results: Amazing Statistical Anomalies, August 13, 2012 and 2008/2012 Election Anomalies, Results, Analysis and Concerns, September 2012).

The group’s analysis is based on raw data from primary sources, local precincts, and state and county election records. The pattern of vote flipping raises serious doubts about the Romney victories in the 2012 Republican primaries in Wisconsin and the Ohio. Apparent vote flipping was demonstrated in the group’s paper for at least nine other 2012 Republican primaries as well.

The findings showed a consistent pattern of increasing votes and vote percentages for Romney in the precinct vote tally. The pattern emerges when precinct vote tallies are presented by candidate based on the size of a county precinct.

Wisconsin, for example, is represented in the graph below. Moving from the smallest to largest precincts, you can see Romney’s percent of the vote takes off and those of the others drop after about 7% of the votes are counted. Romney’s percentage of precinct votes goes up (the upward slope of the green line) while those of the three other candidates decline.

The steady increase in Romney’s percent of the vote and steady decline in Santorum’s represents a statistical anomaly. In this case, the anomaly is amazing according to the researchers. They argue that the probability of this happening by chance alone is so small it exceeds the capability of statistical packages to handle. Their software says Romney’s share of the vote, increasing with precinct size has zero probability of occurring by chance alone.

The significance of the Wisconsin analysis is of grave concern. Presuming the use of appropriate statistical measures and analysis, human intervention is the most likely available explanation.

Vote flipping gave Romney a 57,000-vote victory over Santorum in Wisconsin. Absent vote flipping, Santorum would have won over Romney by about 54,000 according the group’s analysis.

Was Wisconsin the only state where Romney’s share of the vote increased in this way as precinct size increased? Read the rest of this entry »

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Passengers report abuse as Turkey intercepts Syria jet

Re-posted by >Michael Collins

Image: A Syrian passenger plane which was forced to land sits at Esenboga airport in Ankara October 10, 2012. Turkey scrambled fighter planes to force a Syrian passenger plane en route from Moscow to land in Ankara on Wednesday and banned Turkish civilian aircraft from flying in Syrian airspace, state-run TRT television said. REUTERS/Cem Oksuz/Anadolu Agency

 

(Beirut, Alakhbar,  October 11)  Passengers inside a Syrian plane intercepted by Turkish jets Thursday told Russia Today security forces forced the crew and passengers to sign papers suggesting the plane made an emergency landing and that no Turkish military were part of the incident.

“Four people onboard have been beaten up, two crew and two passengers, as they tried to force them to sign documents,” Sherin Azis, a flight attendant told RT by phone.

“If we do not agree to these terms, they will take the captain kind of hostage,” Fatima al-Salman, a passenger and mother of three told RT. Read the rest of this entry »

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Boy Band Member Seeks VP Spot

The dream emerges…

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Turkey Hones Its Killing Skills

Published Saturday, October 6, 2012
Source URL: http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/turkey-hones-its-killing-skills

On October 4, the Turkish daily Sözcü proclaimed on its website [2]: “We hit Syria!”

Numerous Syrian soldiers were reported dead as a result of the hit, which took place in response to a Syrian mortar strike that killed a woman and four children, all from the same family, in the Turkish border town of Akçakale. The hit stands to be repeated now that the Turkish parliament has officially authorized [3] future military action against its southern neighbor.

To some observers, this authorization may appear redundant. It is common knowledge that Turkey is playing host to anti-Syrian regime combatants, who stage incursions from Turkish territory, and, as the British Independent noted [4] in June of this year: Read the rest of this entry »

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Turkey Plays Lee Harvey for NATO Plotters

Michael Collins

(Washington, DC 10/6) The United States and European Union are setting the stage for a Syrian invasion. (Image)

Turkey is the fall guy.

The Turkish parliament provided Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan with a broad authorization “to make the necessary arrangements for sending the Turkish Armed Forces to foreign countries” Hurriyet, October 4, 2012. The vote was on party lines with the dominant AKP party forming a majority. Muharrem İnce of the CHP opposition party said: “This motion has no limits. You can wage a world war with [it].”

The warning about the road to war may be near reality. McClatchy Newspapers just reported the following:

ISTANBUL — One day after winning blanket authority to send forces into Syria, Turkey’s prime minister warned Friday that his country is “not far from war” and said that it would be a “deadly mistake” for the Syrian government to test Turkey’s will. McClatchy Newspapers, October 6, 2012 Read the rest of this entry »

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About time! New York Charges JPMorgan with Mortgage Fraud

Michael Collins

(New York Times, Oct 1)  “The federal mortgage task force that was formed in January by the Justice Department filed its first complaint against a big bank on Monday, citing a broad pattern of misconduct in the packaging and sale of mortgage securities during the housing boom. The civil suit against Bear Stearns & Company, now a unit of JPMorgan Chase, was brought in New York State court by Eric T. Schneiderman, the state attorney general.”

Schneiderman charged Bear Sterns and JPMorgan, which acquired Bear, with fraud under the state’s Martin Act.  Unique to New York, the act allows prosecutors the ability to vigorously pursue financial fraud with both civil and criminal charges. The investigative powers provided are broader than those found in any state or among regulators (e.g., the Securities and Exchange Commission). Read the rest of this entry »

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